It's a stubborn fact that Costa Mesa open houses (and even agent-chaperoned showings) are somewhat at the mercy of the elements. When the weather turns nasty, it's hard for prospective buyers to imagine a property as it sparkles on a balmy spring day. In the gloomiest days of winter, at a minimum, it's a full-out lamps-on/drapes open drill.
For the future sellers who will be hosting this winter's Costa Mesa open houses, largely unnoticed was an August update of the government's climate.gov blog. It held important scientific news about the weather to come—although the non-climatologists among us would have had trouble wading through the details.
August's entry led off with the ominous warning: "La Niña continues! It's likely that the La Niña three-peat will happen. Those chilling words would probably have Costa Mesa homeowners racking their memories, trying to recall what happened the last time La Niña conditions prevailed. Did that mean a terrible fall and winter or a mild one?
The update's title didn't help. "August 2022 ENSO update: Summer Nights" didn't even provide a clue to whatever the heck "ENSO" stands for. Even Googling it didn't clarify much (it's short for "El Niño-Southern Oscillation"). Since Costa Mesa open house hosts will find themselves contending with weather caused by a La Niña, not El Niño, why wasn't this an 'LNSO' update?
Reading further didn't explain why but did define the three-peat that "likely will happen." It's all about the east-central Pacific Ocean and what happens when it is at least .5°C cooler than the long-term average. Local residents will be relieved (or concerned) to learn that this past July, the Nino-3.4 Region of the tropical Pacific was .7°C cooler than the 1991-2020 average. Our relief or concern will depend on whether we recall having liked Costa Mesa's winter weather during the past couple of years. The accompanying chart did not help, either. Trying to make sense of the mystifying disharmonies of the faint grey lines (they seem to be doing some oscillating themselves) is nearly impossible. If you are up for a challenge, you can look for yourself…
As in so many climatological discussions, the outcome of La Niña's cooling is anyone's guess. It might explain why it took until this past Sunday for USA Today's editors to sort out how "an upwelling Kelvin wave" might affect "the Monsoon in the West"—and other fine points. They settled for a summary that suggests a winter that brings cold and snow for the Northwest, a dry spell for the southern tier, and warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
They left out a final prediction quoted in the actual ENSO update. Per their expert: "I am not sure of the influence of La Niña this year, but it certainly could be there." It's hard to argue with that.
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