Last Thursday, under the headline “The Housing Recession is Over…,” Costa Mesa real estate observers found a MarketWatch report laden with positive indicators. All of them were, however, less than earth-shaking in scale. The optimism-tinged phrases like ‘ticked up,’ ‘inched up,’ and ‘small positive increase’ were balanced by negative results that were equally minuscule—‘falling only slightly,’ was one of those.
Even so, it was hard not to applaud the overall message—a fairly convincing gathering of June month-end numbers that look as if real estate industry momentum is stirring. The springtime doldrums seem to be over—but only ‘just.'
Here are MW’s particulars:
- Pending home sales advanced a bit on a month-to-month basis—the first time in four months.
- Economists had expected a pending sales downtick of half a percent, so the .8% gain was small but definite.
- Costa Mesa house-hunters whose searches echoed the national trend would have confirmed that “the gulf between the median price of a new home and of an existing home narrowed.” This owes to the continuing dearth of existing home inventory (which keeps prices high) and a slight lowering of new home prices due to builders doing a better job of keeping pace with demand.
- Home prices hold steady (nearly, that is: in June they did fall, but “only slightly.”
- Prices are expected to rise by 2.6% next year.
- Existing home sales are expected to recover in 2024 by about .75%.
The ‘inching up’ and ‘ticking up’—in some cases, despite expert predictions—constitutes a reversal that was not at all expected so early in the year. Costa Mesa real estate watchers might have to adjust their expectations (and timetables) accordingly.
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