Year-End Real Estate Predictions: Take Your Choice
It’s normally tricky business to predict the direction that the U.S. real estate market will be taking in any coming year, but in most years, projecting the situation for just a few months in the future puts the experts on safer ground.
But, alas: like everything else this year, “normally” doesn’t apply. When Forbes queried five of the top housing economists to venture their opinions on what they anticipated the rest of 2020 was likely to bring, that was after acknowledging that the first half of this year was “unprecedented” (hardly an auspicious takeoff point for dependable projections).
The opinions were first published a couple of months ago, which can supply Costa Mesa real estate watchers a strong clue about which have thus far pointed in the right direction. Here are condensed summaries of the predictions:
- Expert 1: A ‘V’ shaped recovery in the housing market is hard to deny due to even lower mortgage rates, tighter supply, and house-hunting millennials.
- Expert 2: It’s going to be a ‘W’ shaped housing market recovery because an initial rebound due to pent-up demand will not be renewed at comparable levels due to a comeback of the virus and the expiration of the federal unemployment insurance bonus.
- Expert 3: Certainly, a ‘W,’ although the second dip will be muted. Economic impacts will linger as pandemic cases surge in key states, which will delay opening the economy.
- Expert 4: It’s likely that prices will continue to level off or go down, unemployment will remain high, and the most likely thing to trend up will be foreclosures.
- Expert 5: An incredibly limited home supply will keep a lid on home sales. You can’t record a sale if no one is willing to sell—but newly confident builders may be a source for new listings.
It doesn’t take a fortune teller to deduce that the experts disagree, although the more optimistic among them seem to be closer to where we stand in mid-September. Whatever transpires in the remainder of the year for the Costa Mesa real estate market, if your own economy points you in the home buying or selling direction, we can fill you in on what has been happening right now. Call!
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